Donald Trump could go down as the most divisive and polarizing president ever elected. Since being elected in 2016, Trump’s base has avidly supported him and those fan numbers don’t tend to fluctuate much. But the general public’s approval rating of Trump bounces around quite often, especially after a controversial decision or scandal.
The 2020 election will be taking place next year, and multiple projection models used to determine the next president has Trump winning the election handily. Steve Rattner, Obama’s former Treasury Secretary adviser, penned an op-ed piece that looked at those early projection models.
In the op-ed Rattner explained that many of Trump’s personality characteristics and mannerisms were a contributing factor for his loss of the popular vote to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
“I’m quite confident that the [prediction model] gap was a function of the generally unfavorable rankings on Mr. Trump’s personal qualities,” Rattner wrote. “In other words, a more ‘normal’ Republican would likely have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes).”
This time around the projections that Trump will win a second term focus on the fact that incumbent presidents are hard to beat, and a strong economy and low gas prices are two additional factors in Trump’s favor.
In March, Mark Zandi, an accredited economist, explained that based off these models, Trump would win “pretty handily.”
“If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,” Zandi told Politico. “In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff it would make a big difference.”
Zandi was one of the economists that foresaw Obama’s historic 2008 election as well as his 2012 re-election. Even in 2016, when no one else seemed to see it coming, Zandi accurately claimed Trump would win the election, the Daily Mail reported.
Economists have agreed with Zandi’s assessment of the 2020 presidential landscape. Out of 13 polls, 12 have Joe Biden as the only real opposition Trump facing from the Democratic party. However, if the current trade tariffs don’t work in America’s favor or the US is forced into an unnecessary war, there could easily be a new president in 2020.