By this time next week, the numbers will be in and the pundits will be parsing through the numbers and statistics in a concerted effort to make sense of what has been the most chaotic presidential election cycle in living memory. But that’s a week away.
This week, pollsters are looking into their crystal balls and offering up predictions. The most recent round of polls show that Donald Trump is making significant gains on Hillary Clinton and tightening the chasm opened by revelations of Trump’s sexist behaviors.
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For the latest in the mathematical trends, we turn once again to the processing power of RealClearPolitics.com, a site dedicated to synthesizing polling data into easy to read, non-partisan info-graphics.
So what do the new numbers tell us? Clinton has lost her staggering lead. While she is still leading in most of the polls, her lead is diminishing. Part of this is, no doubt, due to the revelations from her campaign team’s emails. The scandals surrounding Clinton keep getting more tangled.
Add to that the news that the FBI has discovered materials relevant to their investigation on the computer of disgraced congressman Anthony Weiner (who was married to Clinton aide Huma Abedin). The cumulative effect of all of these revelations seems to be slowly eroding the support of some Clinton supporters.
This news is welcome for Trump’s campaign team, who continues to look for a smoking gun that proves criminal intent on the part of Hillary Clinton. In the previous weeks, Trump’s team slammed the polls as inaccurate. Now, as the number shift in his favor, they’re promoting polling results more heavily.
In a speech given last night, Trump compared his campaign to the recent decision Britons made to remove themselves from the European Union. Brexit, as it is now known, wasn’t polling well. Yet, when the vote was counted, a majority voted to leave.
The lesson here is one that favors Trump. Brexit wasn’t seen as popular, so (it is widely believed) people who were polled didn’t answer polling honestly. Voters were embarrassed to admit they intended to vote for Brexit, but–in the end–voted for Brexit. There are those on the Trump team expecting this phenomena for their candidate, and Trump himself has said his candidacy is “Brexit times five.”