The Republican Primary is basically a multi-months long math problem. Delegate math is tricky. A candidate needs to secure 1,237 delegates before the GOP convention in order to secure the nomination.
However, delegates don’t always tell the whole story. Due to different state rules, minimum percentage thresholds, voter turnout, etc, delegates don’t always line up perfectly with the number of votes a candidate has received.
We compiled the data available as of this morning, which may be 1-3% slightly low due to some districts from yesterday having delayed results, and figured out how many votes each candidate has received in total this election cycle.
As you can see, frontrunner Donald Trump still holds a sizable lead, even in the popular vote. However, when you look at the fact that Cruz and Rubio combined have a substantially higher vote count than Trump (and that number gets even higher when Kasich and Carson’s votes are factored in), you can start to see that winning states and delegates doesn’t necessarily translate to getting a majority of the vote. So far, nearly 3.4 million people have voted for Donald Trump in the primaries while over 6.1 million people have voted for one of the other remaining candidates (not counting the thousands of votes for candidates who have already dropped).
So, you’ve seen how the popular vote has shaken out, what does that translate to in terms of delegates? Thanks to a strong win in his home state of Texas, as well as Oklahoma and Alaska, along with some solid second place finishes, Sen. Ted Cruz isn’t too far behind Trump. Sen. Marco Rubio on the other hand hasn’t fared well in the delegate count thus far, despite having a very strong third place in the popular vote. Graphic: AP
Kasich and Carson are lagging behind in both terms of the popular vote and the delegate count.