This week marks a real milestone for the Trump campaign. It is the first time the billionaire Republican presidential candidate has hit some key numbers in the most recent polls. For the first time this election cycle, Trump is somewhat solidly ahead of Hillary Clinton in most polls according to Real Clear Politics.
The last few days also marks the first time Trump’s support has exceeded 45% in Real Clear Politics average of polls.
In recent months, the poll tracking service has removed several states from the Democratic side of things and placed them in the “toss up” category. In just the last 24 hours Nevada has been moved from being a “Leans Democrat” state into the “Toss Up” states. In fact, Trump is actually up two points there.
Trump currently leads in the toss up states of Georgia and Florida and is in a statistical tie with Clinton in the key battleground state of Ohio.
Trump is likely enjoying a convention bump in the polls. However, the general consensus was that the Republican National Convention did not go as well as many Republicans had hoped. However, that combined with the news of the Democratic National Committee email scandal, in which it was revealed that Democratic leadership colluded to hurt Bernie Sanders’ campaign, could also be part of the change in the numbers.
The scandal has been pointed by DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigning in disgrace over the incident.
However, according to a report by CNN on their most recent poll numbers (which have Trump up by five points):
There hasn’t been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN’s polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.
National polls don’t have a large enough sample to accurately reflect the state of play in key battlegrounds, and there is little information thus far on how Trump’s convention performance has affected the presidential race state-by-state.
According to the NY Post, Trump also leads in the most recent Reuters poll, which is not yet included in the RCP average:
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump posted a two-point lead over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday, the first time he has been ahead since early May…
…The July 22-26 poll found that 39 percent of likely voters supported Trump, 37 percent supported Clinton and 24 percent would vote for neither. The poll had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points, meaning that the two candidates should be considered about even in support.