It’s been several days since the FBI announced their renewed investigation into Hillary Clinton’s home brew email server and mishandling of classified documents during her time as Secretary of State.
It was unclear how this announcement might have affected the polls, but we’re starting to get a bigger picture this week.
The ABC News tracking poll had Clinton at one of her widest leads in the recent campaign last week, saying she was up 12 points on Donald Trump in the four person race between Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.
However, in their latest polling numbers released today, which take into account polling several days after the announcement of the email investigation, the poll now has Donald Trump up on Hillary Clinton by one percentage point.
According to an ABC report:
Trump now leads Clinton by 8 points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday. But compared with past elections, it’s low for both of them — 53 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Clinton.
Strong enthusiasm for Clinton has lost 7 points since the start of tracking, especially Friday through Sunday. This is possibly an effect of the renewed controversy over her use of a private email server while secretary of state. Trump’s strong enthusiasm has held steady in tracking, which started Oct. 20.
The 1 point Clinton-Trump race is well within the survey’s margin of sampling error. Combining the last seven nights — across which results have been very stable — the results flip to 46 percent Clinton, 45 percent Trump, with a 0.4 point gap. Again, it is not a significant difference.
Either way, the results are exceedingly close. Trump’s 1 point lead is a noteworthy result; he has led Clinton just once before, up 2 points in late May (among registered voters in a two-way test), after he clinched the GOP nomination while Clinton was still in a duel with Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race.
It is unclear if Trump or his supporters will be glad to see the rising poll numbers. Trump and many of his supporters have said that media polling is inaccurate and may actually be biased towards showing a Clinton lead.